Source: BGA - Foodstuff Exchange of Rio de Janeiro, 15/05/2009

Spurred by the international crisis and the rise in the tax burden, the so-called underground or informal economy grew like never before in the past year. According to the index calculated by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), clandestine activity increased 27,1% in 2008, the biggest expansion since the survey began in March 2003. “The number is really very high. We are concerned with the increase in the production of goods and services with practices that circumvent the law ”, said economist Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho, coordinator of the study, carried out in partnership with the Brazilian Institute of Ethics in Competition (Etco). In 2007, for example, the increase had been only 4,98%.

FGV does not know how to estimate the size of this illegal economy, but it manages to measure its movements based on the behavior of the variables that influence it: tax collection, percentage of workers without a formal contract, the level of legal activity itself, exports, the perception of corruption and rigid legislation. These are the components used internationally to arrive at the indicator. According to Barbosa, the increase in the tax burden was responsible for 55% of the expansion rate of illegal activity. According to tax calculations, the volume of taxes collected last year reached a record of 36% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The greater the weight of taxes and labor costs, the greater the tax evasion and the proliferation of informal work. The economic slowdown also played a role in increasing illegality.

“By paralyzing the regular economy, the crisis indirectly stimulated the underground economy, which does not depend so much on credit. In addition, people who lost their jobs had to manage, which tends to increase the number of street vendors on the streets and the manufacture and sale of products such as pirated DVDs, for example, ”said Barbosa.

CORRUPTION. In FGV's calculations, the perception of corruption was responsible for 16,9% of the expansion last year. The growth rate of the shadow economy has been accelerating at an impressive rate. In the second quarter of 2008, it was 1,1%. In the third, 6,9%. From October to December, a period in which the crisis was stronger in Brazil, with a 15,2% decline in GDP in annualized terms, the rate jumped to 13,6%.

According to the president of Etco, André Franco Montoro, the underground economy represents 20% to 30% of Brazil's GDP. For him, the index shows that the reduction of the tax burden could be one of the public measures to be taken to reduce informality. The entity uses the term “underground economy” to identify production of goods and services not reported to the government in order to circumvent taxation, contributions and costs involved in the formality. The indicator does not measure this type of activity in the country in financial terms, it only monitors movements to promote the advancement of public policies that solve the problem. In the second half alone, this economy advanced 21,4% more than GDP, with the index going from 99,4 points at the end of June to 120,7 points at the end of the year.

According to FGV professor Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho, the 11,6% increase in tax collection in 2008 contributed 55,5% to the increase in informal activity in the country. This variable, however, should have less influence on this year's indicator. , due to the reduction in collection that has been observed since January. Likewise, the lower level of employment should help to slow this type of business in the country.