Brazil should only recover stock of jobs lost after 2021

By ETCO
08/08/2016

Since the beginning of 2015, the country has lost more than 2 million formal vacancies.
Recovery is expected to start in 2017, but will be slow, according to projections.

 

Even though some indicators start showing signs that the Brazilian economy has stopped worsening and may be bottoming out, the job market will need a few years to recover from the effects of the prolonged recession and absorb all those who have been laid off or not. they got a formal job.

Projections from consultancy Trends and GO Associados, based on market estimates for GDP (Gross Domestic Product), point out that only after 2021 will Brazil recover the level of formal jobs at the end of 2014, when the country lived a situation considered almost full employment.

Since January 2015, Brazil has lost 2,07 million formal jobs, according to data from the Ministry of Labor's General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged).

The country ended June with a stock of 39,1 million formal jobs compared to 41,2 million at the end of 2014. The record for the series was set in September of that year, on the eve of the presidential elections, when the total number of workers hired workers reached 41,8 million.

Already are 15 consecutive months of dismissals exceeding hires. Last year, Brazil lost 1,54 million formal jobs. In 2016, in the accumulated result for the year, until June, another 531,7 thousand jobs were eliminated in the celetist regime.

Loss of 1,3 million vacancies in 2016
Economist Luiz Castelli, from GO Associado, projects that the number of vacancies lost during 2016 will reach 1,36 million, totaling about 2,9 million formal jobs eliminated in the country in 2 years.

Falling wages and few alternatives
In an economy in recession, informality is bound to grow. The call underground economy increased for the first time in at least 11 years, according to a study by the Brazilian Institute of Ethics in Competition (ETCO) and Ibre / FGV, representing 16,2% of GDP, an increase of 0,1 percentage point in relation to the previous year.

IBGE figures show, however, that employment without a formal contract is no longer the escape valve for those who are unemployed. The number of informal workers rose to 10,083 million in June from 10,067 million 1 year earlier.

Even self-employment shows signs of saturation. There are almost 23 million Brazilians with this type of occupation, which brings together the self-employed, the so-called PJs (legal entities), individual microentrepreneurs (MEIs) and all those who do not pay wages for employees.

In the 12 months ended in May, the number of Brazilians working on their own grew by 3,9%, an increase of 857 thousand people. In comparison with the previous quarter, however, the number fell 1,1%, with an output of 263 thousand workers. See report from Jornal Nacional below

Source: G1- 07/08/16

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