Source: Correio Braziliense - DF - 26/07/2009

They were multi-billion dollar debts hidden in the administration drawers, which were not part of the official accounts. When they were recognized, they caused an explosion in public debt, which jumped from 30% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 50%. Although the subject has fallen by the wayside, a similar threat hangs over the balance of accounts today. The lawsuits against the Union and liabilities under the control of the National Treasury represent a potential mega-skeleton of at least R $ 800,7 billion. The magnitude of this figure can dismantle the fiscal adjustment. It amounts to 64,3% of everything governments owe today and 27,3% of GDP accumulated in 12 months.

While this is possible, it is difficult for the bomb to burst into the hands of the economic team at once. But it is enough for the Union to lose some processes for public accounts to be completely messed up. The greatest example is the Industrialized Products Tax (IPI) premium credit, a tax incentive for exporters of manufactured products that the government guarantees to have been revoked in 1983. However, the companies ensure that the benefit is still in effect. The impact of the case, in judgment at the Supreme Federal Court (STF), is R $ 288 billion. The Minister of Finance, Guido Mantega, is very concerned and has already made several visits to the STF to deal with the matter.

“Undoubtedly, these values ​​represent a significant risk to the balance of public accounts”, admits the Deputy Attorney General of the National Treasury, Fabrício da Soller, responsible for tax processes. He is excited about the prospects of victory in the case of the premium credit in the STF, with the edition of a binding summary to direct the judgment in the lower courts. If they win, exporters will be able to offset the amounts with taxes due, making an account with the tax authorities. The other option is to receive the funds via a precatory bill included in the federal budget for the following year. "The Union has been making payments within the period determined by the Constitution."

The STF analyzes three other processes with a destructive potential for fiscal balance. In a cause estimated at R $ 60 billion, on the validity of the inclusion of the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) in the calculation base of the Contribution for the Financing of Social Security (Cofins), the government is losing by 6 to 1. Another theme is the constitutionality of the Social Contribution on Net Income (CSLL) based on the Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ). This action, tied at 1 to 1, can cost R $ 40 billion. The third is the requirement of the CSLL on export revenues, in the amount of R $ 15 billion. The score is 4 to 4 - the Supreme has 11 ministers.

Even if you lose, the attorney general's office can ask the STF to modulate the decision. Modulation is a recently adopted institute under which the Supreme Court can decide when its determination begins to take effect. Ministers can resolve that the ICMS will come out of the Cofins calculation only after the trial date, erasing all past effects, for example. In that case, the government would not bear the old debt. This formula has been invoked mainly when there is great damage to the public coffers or if the full validity of the solution causes social damage. “This is not a privilege of the State. Taxpayers can also request that this effect be given ”, says Soller.